We
went for a drive yesterday. The temperature was approaching 90
degrees (Fahrenheit). There was no one outside except a couple of
farmers. There wasn't even any traffic. We got to talking, as we seem
to always do on these little trips up onto the mountain. Except for
there not being any storms present yesterday, it reminded us of a
time in the recent past. And that got us to talking even more.
On
June 29, 2012, a derecho hit our area. We were without electricity
for about 8 days. Our temperature was in the high eighties and lower
nineties the whole 8 days. Our area has the water tank up on the
hill, so we did have water. I have lots of honey buckets – sixty
pounds of honey comes in each bucket. The empty buckets came from
work. We had no electricity; so, no hot water. I filled a bunch of
buckets with water and set them out on the concrete sidewalk. About
4:00 PM, I would bring the buckets in and empty them into the bath
tub and then refill the buckets for tomorrow. The water felt so nice
and warm. Bath time! That water felt so nice!!! Until you set your
backside down into it! Then it felt like ice water! I don't know why
something that feels so warm to the hand can feel so cold, but it
did. Anyway, that is how we took a bath.
Our home phone
had a powered base/answering machine. We had no electricity; so, no
phone service. We had gone down to the Family Dollar two or three
years prior and gotten a $10.00, simple phone with no frills. It
worked fine off of the phone company's electricity. We had phone
service. We still keep that $10.00 phone handy.
Cell
phone towers were overloaded with calls. You had service, if you
could get on the tower. Basically, you had to wait for someone to
hang up for you to get on. It was like the old party lines, except
you couldn't listen in on their conversations.
No
electricity equals no gas pumps working. No cash registers working.
We had food and gas of our own. We got by.
We went to the
supermarket to get some “nice to haves”. Supermarket was open,
but they had no power for the freezers and lost everything.
Refrigerators were lost, also. This only lasted a couple of days
before they shut the doors. No restocking. Nothing to sell of
consequence. It took a long time after power was restored to get
restocked. As an aside: I asked them why they didn't have a generator
for the freezers. They said it was easier and cheaper to file an
insurance claim for the losses instead
of trying to save the food.
I work in Roanoke. After I
left work, I stopped by several fast food establishments. The lines
inside went from the door, down the wall, across the end of the
store, up the opposite wall and out that door, and down the side of
the building. Employees had not come in and they were short handed.
Most of the workers were workers who stayed over from the previous
shift. And the restaurant was running out of food. They didn't get
restocked. This didn't last long. The restaurants ran out of food.
I
never heard anything, but I have wondered about infants and formula.
For Mothers who were not breast feeding, I assume, and hope, they had
formula on hand or got enough from the stores or traded/begged from
neighbors/friends for it.
All summer long we heard
chainsaws as everyone belatedly cut down any trees anywhere near
their home or power lines...we think this has impacted the power
service since then as we have had very few power outages from trees
falling during storms in the last few years. Nothing like a tree
falling into your living room or bedroom (while you are in it), to
enlighten you as to what you should have done before. The power
company had been coming around for several years asking to cut down
trees close to the power lines to avoid damage to the lines. They
would also cut trees close to the house for you and charge it to line
safety. Almost no one would permit the power company to cut their
nice trees. The power company was not charging for any of this. After
the derecho, tree trimming/cutting down went to $1000 to $1500 per
tree. They got from free to here overnight. Thanks to a derecho.
Fast forward (rewind) to the more distant past. When I
lived in Eastern North Carolina, We had hurricane Floyd come through
about ten days after hurricane Dennis. The ground was already water
logged from Dennis. The water from Floyd had no place to go but to
the streams. The streams went from 150 feet to 3 miles wide. But!!!
The depth wasn't the biggest danger. The water came up to the high
voltage lines feeding the area. They had boats out there monitoring
the situation. The boats could not get under the lines, the water was
so high. They had to monitor the waves. If the water rose, the wind
speed increased, and/or the waves got closer to the power lines, they
would shut down the high voltage lines serving from up in Virginia to
South Carolina. If the high voltage lines were touched by the waves,
it would short out the lines and shut down the entire East Coast of
the US.
Fast
forward now to the future. It doesn't take an EMP, terrorist act,
computer malfunction, or whatever, to cause a major problem
nationwide. Everything is so interconnected, interdependent, and
“just in time”, that one hiccup can spell disaster.
And it
can begin a chain reaction that goes nationwide. It can affect many
more areas of our lives than just the starting point of the disaster.
Preparedness has kind of dropped off peoples radar. It is so
yesterday, like Y2K. We got worked up, but it turned out to be
nothing. But, what if???
What if a derecho came through at
the beginning of July and the summers hottest temperatures? What if
it shorted out the East Coast power grid? I would be affected. Would
you? What if it affected the West Coast? Or the Plains? What if...?
What if it was nationwide? What if it did not affect someone else,
but affected YOU??? What would you do? How would you survive? What if
it took two or three months to get repair parts? A year? What if
there are no repair parts?
Four things we need for
survival is shelter, clothing, water, and food.
Most
of us have a house, apartment, condo, townhouse, or some place where
we live. We have shelter. Fine! We're in great shape! But? Are we?
When the outside temperature is 90 degrees for days, what is the
temperature inside that house without HVAC (air-conditioning)? How
conditioned are you to no A/C? When I was aboard an aircraft carrier,
we lost A/C to our berthing area. They said the temperature went to
145 degrees in there. I don't really think it went that high, but it
did feel like an oven. We had no air movement. Everyone but six of us
moved to other quarters. The six of us had a 160 bed “hole” to
ourselves. When we went to bed, we laid on top of the sheets naked
with a towel across our midsections. And we sweated like crazy. It
was a fitful sleep. We drank a lot before going to bed and woke up
dehydrated. We would drink quarts of water in the next hour trying to
rehydrate. It sounds impossible, but it took six to eight quarts of
water to get back to normal. This home of yours is going to get hot,
in the extreme. And it isn't going to cool off much at night. Where
is your water going to come from? I doubt if your water tank is up on
the hill. You will have no water. And how is the city/county going to
get water up the hill to the tank?
Let's change seasons.
What if our little disaster happens at the beginning of December? How
are you going to stay warm? You have a fireplace? Where is the wood?
Do you have enough to last until the weather warms up? Not likely!
Fireplaces aren't good for heating a home, but better than nothing.
But you have to have something to burn. And the smoke? Now your
neighbors see the smoke and are going to investigate, trying to stay
warm. Maybe they feel more entitled to your heat, at your expense.
And you still don't get any water. Now, water lines and sources are
going to start freezing. You just can't get a break. Maybe you could
call your neighbor or friends or family and complain about how bad
things are for you? Ohh! Things are going to get worse.
Fiona
added this bit of information: Forced air furnace's need electricity
to ignite and then more electricity to run the fan and circulate the
air in your home. A full propane tank is not necessarily useful.
Natural Gas is not much better. [***Footnotes at the end of the
post.]
Disasters
can occur at any time, not just on your schedule or at your
convenience. They WILL occur at the worst possible time for you, when
you are the least prepared or able to withstand it!
For
those with an earth bermed home or with a basement, there is some
hope for you. At a depth of over six meters (twenty feet), the soil
temperature will be equal to your average year round air temperature.
If your yearly average temperature is 55 degrees, the temperature at
six meters will be 55 degrees, year round. For an earth bermed home,
you will incur a varying temperature, but better than outside
temperatures. A basement will generally have more dirt on one side
than another, and all of it or most above grade. Better than nothing,
and moderated, but not as good as six meters. There is some hope and
help in both of these.
Shelter
done. You take it from here.
Clothing?
It is cold in the house. It is cold outside. How are you going to
stay warm? We throw on a light jacket and run out to the car. But
long, extended, bone-chilling cold: how can you stay warm? The roads
aren't going to be cleared. How are your high heels going to do in
that white stuff? Or, for the southern folks, that ice? I have seen
ice storms do a lot more damage than any snow storm. Oh, the
flip-flops aren't going to be much help, either.
Just
remember this: As bad times are seen coming, we may put on stress
weight. And after the “event”, we will start losing weight as we
try to cope. Styles will go out the window. Functionality will come
in vogue! Have clothing on both sides of here and now. Too big will
be better than too small after the “event”. I had a teacher in
high school that someone asked what her favorite season was. She said
winter. She said she could always put on enough to be warm, but
sometimes couldn't take off enough to be cool. I don't think she was
just being modest. Learn how to dress for heat and cold.
Water.
What can be said. Safe and clean or dead. No way around it. It
doesn't have to be cool or warmed up. It doesn't have to have fizz or
flavors. Straight up and pure. Free of contaminates. And a constant,
safe supply. In summer's heat, we're talking hours. In winter's cold,
days. But, either way, it isn't much time. Hydrate or die. I may be
repeating a falsehood here. If so, please correct me. But, as I
remember, one of the biggest winter killers is dehydration. More so
than freezing.
Fuel. For heat. Where are you going to get
it? For your vehicle? I am talking singular here. You might have four
or five vehicles, but which one will serve your needs best? And
concentrate on that one. Keep it in tip top shape. Keep it fueled up.
Keep spare fuel (stabilized) for it. Keep spare parts for it. Keep
good tires on it. Keep tools with it to work on it. Can you fix a
flat? Do you have a repair kit to do it with? Be prepared.
Guns.
I think a lot of people are going to get surprised here. A lot of
people have guns now. I don't think that number will go up a lot.
Guns just aren't going to be for sale. What there are will go
quickly. There will be no replacements. Gun shops will lock what they
have up as best as they can, or hide them. They will be charging
outrageous prices for what they do have. So, I think gun sales will
be small. But, I think gun theft will be high. I think law abiding
neighbors, family, friends, and strangers will be trying to get guns
from whatever and whoever they can. This means YOU!!! There will be
the same number of guns, they will just change ownership. And there
will be bloodshed on both ends of the guns. I am not as worried about
inner city hoodlums as I am about that upstanding neighbor down the
road whose family is starving or cold. It could be dog eat dog! The
brave are not the only ones to rise to the occasion. Scum rises to
the surface, also. If you don't already have a gun, don't expect to
acquire one then. And, do some soul searching. A gun is worthless to
you if you aren't willing to use it or don't know how to use it, or
if you have no ammo. And I don't want to get into the government and
confiscation topics!
Food.
Almost as bad as water. We are not ruminants. We can not survive on
grass. We need calories. Protein and carbohydrates are 4 calories per
gram. Fat is 9 calories per gram. We need fat in our diets. Or, we
need to eat over twice as much food. And this in a scarce
environment. For the populace that has not planted a garden: they
probably do not have stored food. To plant a garden in July for
survival is not going to happen. They will be dead before the
calories come out of the garden. Lettuce is a diet food for a reason:
no calories. Radishes: no calories. Spinach: no calories. Fast food
out of the garden means no calories. Higher calorie foods means two
or three months before harvest. What are these people going to eat?
To walk out of the cities means calories. Where is it going to come
from? No calories, no energy. Only the worst will get out. They will
take what they need/want. Potatoes need cooler weather/soil. Not a
good choice in July. Most seeds will not germinate in the high soil
temperatures. It is too early for a garden. And fall is too far away.
There is just not enough time. Lack of preparation will be their
downfall. I have lots of seeds. I can make soup. I can eat a day or
two, but not long term unless I have planted them back in April or
May. I need to have prepared before hand, not now. It is too late
now.
Winter time is even worse. You can't start a garden
in the snow. You have months of cold to survive before even starting
a garden.
Animals can be a survival food. How do you kill
it? How do you save the meat? Summer heat means only days of food
from a 1000 pound cow. The rest will be spoiled. Do you know how to
work around this problem? There are ways. If you are prepared. And
without refrigeration. Winter will be a help here. The meat won't
spoil as quickly. But you have to have the will and you have to be
prepared. Smaller animals are more meal sized. One per meal or
two.
The only choices are to start ahead and always be
prepared for the worst, even if it doesn't come. Or join the scum out
there. Make your choice. Or it will be made for you.
***
These excerpts are from an article about the natural gas grid after severe cold weather in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.
1) The electric grid
relies on natural gas. Over half the electric generation fleet
in Texas is fueled by gas. For the U.S. as a whole, gas drives
almost a third of the generation fleet, but with the discovery of
enormous shale gas reserves and low prices, that number is growing
quickly. Almost all new conventional generation on the books in
the US is gas-fired. In the February 2011 event, there were
problems getting necessary gas supplies to the power plants.
According to the FERC/NERC assessment, most of the outages were
directly weather related, but 12% were indirectly attributable to gas
curtailments to generators and difficulties in fuel switching.
2) The gas grid
relies on electricity. In order for the gas grid to work
smoothly, pressure must be maintained throughout the system.
This is accomplished by a complex system of compressors and pumping
stations. As a consequence of the rolling blackouts, many of
these stations failed and pressure could not be adequately
maintained. This in turn caused a lower supply to the gas
generators and results in a feedback loop.
In the gas grid, the main
compressor stations feeding the large interstate pipelines are
typically fueled by natural gas. Gas-fueled compressors could
be more widely used throughout the system, but they are noisy and
have environmental implications. So in urban areas, the gas
distribution companies typically use electric pumps and compressors
to bring gas to the consumer. It’s not hard to see where the
problem lies here. No electricity, no gas supply.
**********
A Ralph Post
